Este trabajo ilustra no sólo una innovadora forma de estudiar el efecto látigo, o una forma distinta de modelar las cadenas de suministro usando los principios. Se debe a un desajuste en la cadena de suministro entre las Relación entre precio-demanda pueden incrementar o mitigar el efecto látigo. Efecto Latigo Solución CPFR Planeación agregada. Es la sincronización de la estrategia de la cadena de suministro y de competitiva. Causas.

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A Control Theoretic Approach. This kind of artificial shortage is caused by the structure of heuristic policies defined by the supply chain managers. We will illustrate just what kind of scenarios could be developed for a more detailed study, and how to asses the impact of new policies.

The number of elements of InTransit should be set equal to the number of time steps in a DelayTime period, i. Due to the inventory policies, the safety stock is defined as days of laitgo times the forecast. If during a given week demand exceeds inventory on hand, the supplier manager only serves as much as possible, and does not consider the shortage for later.

Model description Given the nature of the System Dynamics methodology Sterman ; Lane ; Doyle and Fordthe model will not emphasise the detail of the Supply Chain network.

The amplitude and frequency of these oscillations are uncorrelated with market oscillations. This paper illustrate not only an innovative form to study the Bullwhip Effect nor only a different way to model supply chains using System Dynamics, but also it establishes a suminjstro between information structures, decisions rules, and demand distortion in supply chains.

However, due to ,atigo simplicity, the model is limited in different ways. When a simulation is ran using historic demand latkgo the yearwe can observe some dynamics resulting from the decision making structure used by the managers and in addition of uncertain demand.


In figure 9 we can also see the existence of a one week delay between the purchase order and supply. Therefore, the assumption of demand to test the model is meaningful to provide an interpretation.

The df line represents the forecast value and in green we have the ‘real’ demand. My main problems with Logistics are that they never give me the production programme! Notice efectto inventories are approximately half of demand. Order fulfilment is constrained by production capacity, transportation capacity and inventory availability. International Journal of Production Economics78, pp.

We have also orders to be confirmed on a monthly basis. This has generated in the sales managers the culture of over ordering when rationing expectations appear. They purchase sugar based on price. However, the company only has records about sales and not ‘real’ demand.

Oscillation of the purchase orders are not eliminated, varying from 0 to 70, units inside a given season. Modelling considerations In efedto case study we work with the main bottler of PepsiCo Beverages International in Mexico: Sloan Management ReviewSpring, pp.

Much of that innovation focused on carbonated soft drinks Figure 2. At this time the input variable is reproduced exactly. Within 30 days of launching Pepsi Twist in the US, Pepsi bottlers had sold more than 10 million cases. Purchase managers generate a supply plan once every month and at least one month in advance.

Tatiana Lara

Sugar price varies according to market. Figure 11 shows the values that raw material inventories can take if a seasonal purchase policy is adopted. Hence, the effect of possible negotiation on delivery time and frequency can add more control to the oscillations.


The bullwhip effect is attributed mainly to cdaena causes: We dr selected for model validation and calibration parameterization the historic demand for the year System Dynamics Review14, 1, pp.

Medición del efecto látigo en redes de suministro | Unilibre | INGENIARE

I look at the inventories once a week and from there I make a weekly plan: We produced that forecast for 4 or 5 months directly, creating the forecast from our sales estimations based on the “last month sales” and we multiplied it by a factor month by month Scenarios included changes in forecast policies and purchase orders. The oscillation frequency is considerably high. In Mexico most of the producers are state owned. Pepsi uses its own fleet of trucks to pickup the materials from some suppliers.

… more than classic ‘beer game’.

Purchase managers are also responsible for the supply of aluminium cans and plastic or glass bottles. This is because the coverage policy is 3 days of demand. This delay may be modelled using a number of levels that equal the number of time steps in the delay time, i. If we analyze the inventories graph, figure 8we can observe that high inventories are held, and therefore a cost of inventories derived from the heuristic policies from the supply chain managers.

In effect, during the following week, new demand for 15, units is served and 17, units of stock are received, reaching a final inventory of 8, units. The production manager also decides about external production of components, specially for bottle efect.